SPECIMEN 006 / STRATEGY AUTOPSYCRYPTO · WALK-FORWARD · 2020–2026

Supertrend

The green-line-red-line indicator all over TikTok. Go long when it's green. Turns out green is a coin flip.

Momentum Spot · daily · Supertrend(10,3) 10 coins · out-of-sample No edge · coin flip

01 The seduction

Supertrend paints the chart green when you're supposed to be long and red when you're supposed to be out. It's clean, it's visual, it's on every crypto YouTube thumbnail, and it looks like it nails the start and end of every trend.

Supertrend · BTC

+189%

$1,000 → $2,891 vs $6,100 holding

Beat buy & hold

6 / 10

a coin flip

Out-of-sample

3 / 10

faded out-of-sample

02 The one line that ends it

Supertrend vs. doing nothinglog scale

The strategyBuy & hold (doing nothing)

Supertrend beat holding on 6 of 10 majors — and 3 of 10 out-of-sample. Same money, same window, fees included — measured against simply buying Bitcoin once and never touching it.

03 The evidence

Coin	Trades	Win %	Strategy	Buy & hold	Verdict
BTC	31	42	+189%	+510%	lost
ETH	25	56	+1975%	+1080%	beat
BNB	26	46	+3079%	+2465%	beat
SOL	23	39	+2980%	+2288%	beat
XRP	24	46	+470%	+370%	beat
LINK	29	28	+7%	+199%	lost
LTC	28	29	−58%	−24%	lost
DOGE	24	29	+1855%	+2090%	lost
ADA	28	32	+627%	+151%	beat
AVAX	26	31	+1143%	+68%	beat

Long/flat spot, no leverage, next-bar fills, 0.06% fee per side. Beat holding on 6 of 10 coins — and on 3 of 10 in the recent out-of-sample period (the test that separates a real edge from a bull-market coincidence).

04 Verdict

A coin flip in a nice green wrapper. It beat holding on six coins out of ten and then folded in the recent out-of-sample years. The pretty colours don't change the maths.

Method — long/flat spot, next-bar execution (no look-ahead) · 0.06% fee both sides · each coin over its full Binance history from 2019 with indicator warm-up · benchmarked against buy-and-hold on the identical window · out-of-sample = the most recent ~45% of each coin's history. Reproducible.

The honest other side

It's not the worst — it does catch the big moves and it cut some drawdown by sitting out the ugliest bears. If you want a smoother ride and don't mind missing the sharp recoveries, that's a real, if small, thing it does.

05 Your turn

Think yours is the exception?

Run your own strategy through this exact gauntlet — multi-year, out-of-sample, across bull and bear, fees included, benchmarked against doing nothing. You get the full report and the downloadable code.

$1.99per strategy
full report + code

Test my strategy → Coming soon

✓ The price is shown up front, right here. You will never build a test and then get hit with a paywall to see the result.